New Delhi has taken the export ban off the table. Despite a sharp spike in onion prices, the Indian government has ruled out restricting exports, choosing instead to cool the market through buffer-stock releases, the Financial Express and livemint reported in late August. It is a notable policy choice in a country where onion prices have toppled political calculations before — and where past crises were met with exactly the kind of export curbs now being rejected.
The numbers explain the pressure. Retail onion prices reached ₹46.58 per kg — up 64% year on year and up 33% in a single month. In response, the government has been selling buffer onions through the Kanda Express initiative at ₹35 per kg, a deliberate undercut of the market rate aimed at urban consumers feeling the pinch. Buffer procurement has reached 1.21 lakh metric tons against a 2 lakh ton seasonal target — enough ammunition for sustained intervention, though not unlimited.
The mechanics are straightforward: government agencies buy onions at harvest through the buffer program, hold them in ventilated storage, and release them into retail markets when prices spike — as they are doing now through Kanda Express outlets. The ₹35 per kg price point is set deliberately below market to pull the retail average down, though traders note that buffer releases work best as a complement to fresh arrivals rather than a substitute for them.
Exports keep flowing, at a slower pace
The no-ban decision keeps India’s export channel open, but flows are already moderating on price alone. Fiscal 2027 exports stand at 0.53 million tons against 0.61 million tons the previous year, as high domestic prices naturally ration foreign sales. The 2025–26 crop is estimated at 30.73 million tons, a solid harvest that underpins official confidence that supply, properly managed, can cover both domestic needs and exports without resorting to trade barriers.
A friendlier playbook — with a test ahead
India is the world’s largest onion exporter, and its policy choices ripple through Middle Eastern and Asian markets within weeks. An export ban would have sent immediate shockwaves through import-dependent buyers. By choosing buffer releases instead, New Delhi is signaling a more market-friendly playbook: intervene at home, keep trade flowing. For buyers, the practical read is continued availability with firm pricing rather than sudden unavailability at any price. The caveat is the buffer math — if procurement stalls short of target or retail prices climb further, the no-ban stance will face its real test, and markets will be watching the Kanda Express queues for early warning.
