Trade talks in Geneva produced a 90-day tariff truce between the United States and China in May 2025, setting US tariffs on Chinese goods at 30% and Chinese tariffs on US goods at 10% for the duration of the pause. The deal does not resolve the underlying dispute, but it replaces open-ended escalation with a fixed, knowable cost — and for a frozen produce trade that plans harvests, freezer programs, and ocean bookings months in advance, that predictability is nearly as valuable as a lower rate.
What the truce changes on landed cost
At 30%, the US duty on Chinese-origin garlic, ginger, dehydrated vegetables, and IQF lines remains a material line item, but it is now a stable one. Importers can quote customers, sign second-half programs, and arrange financing against a tariff figure that will not move for three months. On the other side, China’s 10% duty on US goods keeps the door open for American-origin inputs and ingredients to keep flowing east without a prohibitive surcharge. For procurement teams, the practical effect is a planning horizon: costs can be modeled, margins defended, and retail price adjustments communicated with confidence rather than hedged against the next headline.
A narrow window favors decisive booking
Ninety days is short relative to frozen supply-chain lead times. Product harvested in early summer, processed, frozen, and shipped across the Pacific can easily consume most of that window before it clears a US port. Exporters with ready inventory and buyers with approved specifications are best positioned to use the truce; anyone still negotiating terms risks watching the clock run out. Freight markets are likely to tighten as shippers on both sides rush to move volume inside the pause, so early vessel booking matters as much as early contracting. There is also a strategic angle: shipments that land and clear within the truce period lock in the agreed rates regardless of what negotiators decide next.
Contract tactics for the pause
The smartest use of the truce is contractual, not just logistical. Buyers can negotiate volume commitments that reference the truce-period duty rate explicitly, with price-adjustment clauses that trigger only if tariffs move after the 90 days expire. That structure shares the policy risk instead of forcing one side to gamble on the outcome of the next negotiating round. Suppliers, meanwhile, can offer truce-window shipment incentives — prioritized production slots or locked pricing — in exchange for firm orders rather than tentative forecasts. In a market where everyone is watching the same calendar, the premium goes to whoever converts uncertainty into signed paperwork first.
Buyer and supplier takeaway: treat the truce as a booking window, not a resolution. Prioritize SKUs with the highest tariff exposure, confirm specifications and payment terms now, and get product on the water early. If talks extend the pause, early movers simply bank the advantage; if they collapse, early movers are the ones holding cleared inventory at known cost.
